Three Saturday friendlies and the price on the straight win in each one is too short to touch. So we move the line. A goal in Brussels, two at Wembley, and a straight Germany win in Philadelphia where the market has not adjusted hard enough.
Belgium vs Tunisia, Belgium minus one on the handicap at 1.90 is the opener at the King Baudouin Stadium. Domenico Tedesco has Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Jeremy Doku and Youri Tielemans all in the squad. Tunisia come with a half-strength group, four of the starting eleven from their last Africa Cup of Nations qualifier left out, and they have failed to score in four of their last six away fixtures against European opposition. Belgium have won by two or more in seven of their last nine at home. The straight Belgium win is priced at 1.32. The minus one handicap at 1.90 is the honest price on the same read.
England vs New Zealand, England minus two on the handicap at 1.54 is the middle leg from Wembley. Thomas Tuchel has Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden in the squad and England have won their last five at Wembley by three goals or more. New Zealand sit 103rd in the FIFA rankings, England 4th, and the All Whites are without their top three forwards from the A-League and the Eredivisie. England have not failed to cover a minus two handicap at Wembley against a non-top-thirty opponent since the Andorra game in November 2023. 1.54 respects the class gap.
USA vs Germany, Germany to win at 1.58 is the closer and the Stake slip link from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Julian Nagelsmann has Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Joshua Kimmich and Kai Havertz in the camp, and the Germans are unbeaten in their last seven away fixtures against CONCACAF opposition. Mauricio Pochettino is without Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams, three of the four core USMNT spines, and the home side have lost four of their last six against top-ten FIFA-ranked teams. 1.58 on the straight Germany win on the road is the value play of the card.
One unit on each leg. Acca lands at 4.62x.