Yesterday's PSG-Bayern BTTS landed early. Southampton-Ipswich landed late. Peterborough drew 1-1. Three from three. That does not happen often, and it does not change how I am pricing today.
Al Nassr at home is a guaranteed party. Ronaldo, Mane and Brozovic against Al Ahli's Firmino and Riyad Mahrez. Both defences have been leaking for a month. BTTS Yes at 1.54 on a fixture this open is closer to evens in a fair market. Take it.
The one I am most confident about is Atletico-Arsenal Under 2.5. Arsenal are the only unbeaten team in the Champions League this season (W9 D1) and both coaches lean defensive in tight games. Five of Atletico's last six home knockouts have gone under 2.5. All of Arsenal's knockout fixtures this term have also gone under 2.5. The 1.68 is the standout price on the night.
Sporting -1 against Tondela is the kind of pick I almost never publish because the odds look too short to bother with. But Sporting are at home, chasing a title, and Tondela are mathematically safe with nothing to play for. The Lions have won by two-plus goals in 11 of their last 12 home league games. 1.40 on the handicap is value when you compare it to the 1.18 on the straight win.
One unit on the acca. Two units each on the singles. As always, do not chase if you lose, and do not move stakes around because you are bored. The slate runs itself.